Chapter 3, Know your risks¶
Every territory has its risk profile¶
A Rotary club in Martinique does not face the same threats as a club in Lyon, Dakar or Port-au-Prince. Tropical cyclone does not concern Burgundy. Seismic risk does not concern Brittany. River flooding does not concern the Sahel. But heatwave now concerns almost everyone.
This chapter gives you the tools to answer a simple and fundamental question: what are the specific risks of OUR territory, and what Rotary resources must we prepare accordingly?
A club that does not know its risks prepares a generic plan, that is to say a useless plan. A club that knows its risks prepares the right plan.
The 19 disaster types in 6 families¶
The international reference classification (EM-DAT/CRED, University of Louvain) distinguishes 6 families and 19 disaster types. Rotary has adopted this framework to organize its response. Each type is coded (A1, B2, etc.) to allow rapid communication between clubs, districts and zones.
Full summary table¶
| Code | Type | Family | Onset | Warning possible | First Rotary tool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Earthquake | Geophysical | Sudden (seconds) | None | DRG + ShelterBox |
| A2 | Tsunami | Geophysical | Sudden to progressive | Minutes to hours | DRG + ShelterBox + WASH-RAG |
| A3 | Volcanic eruption | Geophysical | Progressive (days/weeks) | Yes (observatories) | DRG + ShelterBox |
| A4 | Landslide | Geophysical | Sudden | Limited | DRG + ESRAG |
| B1 | Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon | Meteorological | Progressive (days) | Yes (NHC, weather) | DRG pre-impact + ShelterBox + DAUSA |
| B2 | Flood | Meteorological | Progressive (hours/days) | Yes (Vigicrues, etc.) | DRG + WASH-RAG |
| B3 | Cold wave | Meteorological | Progressive (days) | Yes | DRG + member network |
| B4 | Heatwave | Meteorological | Progressive (days) | Yes | DRG + member network |
| B5 | Building collapse | Meteorological* | Sudden | None | DRG |
| C1 | Drought | Climatological | Progressive (months) | Yes (indicators) | DRG + WASH-RAG + ESRAG |
| C2 | Wildfires | Climatological | Sudden to progressive | Partial | DRG + ShelterBox + ESRAG |
| D1 | HAZMAT explosion | Technological | Sudden | None | DRG |
| D2 | Nuclear accident | Technological | Sudden | Partial (INES) | DRG |
| D3 | Spill / Oil spill | Technological | Progressive | Partial | DRG + ESRAG |
| D4 | Infrastructure collapse | Technological | Sudden | None | DRG |
| D5 | Mass transport accident | Technological | Sudden | None | DRG |
| E1 | Epidemic / Pandemic | Biological | Progressive | Yes (WHO, grades 1-3) | DRG + WASH-RAG + PolioPlus |
| F1 | War / Armed conflict | Complex | Variable | Variable | DRG + RAGFP |
| F2 | Refugees / Displaced | Complex | Progressive | Partial | DRG + RAGFP + WASH-RAG |
| F3 | Famine | Complex | Progressive (months) | Yes (IPC phases 1-5) | DRG + WASH-RAG + ESRAG |
*B5 classified here by convention, may also fall under D4 depending on the cause.
The three onset modes¶
This distinction is critical for your club's preparation:
| Mode | Delay | What it changes for the club |
|---|---|---|
| Sudden-onset | Seconds to hours | No last-minute preparation possible. Everything rests on the plan already in place. The call-down list, the rally point, the PPE, everything must be ready in advance. |
| Slow-onset | Days to months | Preparation time. The DRG can be submitted before impact. ShelterBox can be pre-alerted. Members can be briefed. The advantage is considerable, provided it is not wasted in inaction. |
| Complex | Variable | Multidimensional crisis (conflict + drought + displacement). Humanitarian access difficult. Absolute neutrality essential. The club only engages in secure spaces. |
Identify the risks of YOUR territory¶
Step 1, Consult official sources¶
Every country maintains publicly accessible risk maps. Here are the main sources by region:
| Geographic area | Source | What it provides |
|---|---|---|
| France | Géorisques (georisques.gouv.fr) | Municipal natural and technological risk maps. DDRM, PPR. |
| France | Vigicrues (vigicrues.gouv.fr) | Real-time flood monitoring |
| France | Météo-France (vigilance.meteofrance.fr) | Weather alerts (wind, rain, heat, cold, storms) |
| Europe | Copernicus EMS (emergency.copernicus.eu) | Post-disaster satellite mapping |
| Caribbean | National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) | Cyclone forecasts |
| Global | GDACS (gdacs.org) | Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System |
| Global | EM-DAT (emdat.be) | Historical disaster database |
| Global | UNDRR PreventionWeb (preventionweb.net) | Country risk profiles |
| Seismic global | USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov) | Real-time seismic data |
Concrete action: your Disaster Coordinator must consult Géorisques (or the national equivalent) for your municipality and draw up the list of officially identified risks. Time required: 30 minutes.
Step 2, Probe local memory¶
Official databases do not capture everything. Local memory is a precious resource. Ask:
- Club elders: what disasters marked the municipality in the last 50 years?
- Local elected officials: what risks appear in the Municipal Safeguard Plan?
- Firefighters: what recurring interventions (floods in a given neighborhood, landslides on a given hill)?
- Insurers: what claims are regularly paid out in the area?
- Local press: archives of past events
Step 3, Cross-reference with climate trends¶
Climate change modifies the risk profile of every territory. Events that were once exceptional become recurrent. New risks emerge.
Global trends to integrate into your analysis:
| Trend | Consequence | Most exposed territories |
|---|---|---|
| Rising average temperatures | More frequent and intense heatwaves | Urban areas (heat island effect), elderly populations |
| Intensification of precipitation | More severe floods, flash floods | Valleys, paved areas, coastline |
| Sea level rise | Coastal submersion, erosion, salinization of groundwater | Low-lying coastal zones, islands, deltas |
| Prolonged droughts | Water stress, wildfires, food insecurity | Mediterranean, Sahel, Caribbean |
| More intense cyclones | Higher categories more frequent | Caribbean, Pacific, Southeast Asia |
ESRAG (Environmental Sustainability RAG) is the Rotary resource for this dimension. Their expertise can help your club integrate the climate perspective into its risk analysis.
The Probability × Impact matrix¶
Once your risks are identified, they must be prioritized. Not all risks deserve the same level of preparation. The probability × impact matrix is the standard tool.
How to fill it out¶
Probability: estimate the frequency over the next 20 years.
| Score | Probability | Criterion |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Very low | Less than 1 chance in 100 in the next 20 years |
| 2 | Low | 1 to 10% probability in the next 20 years |
| 3 | Medium | 10 to 50% probability, or already occurred 20-50 years ago |
| 4 | High | More than 50% probability, or occurs every 10-20 years |
| 5 | Very high | Near certain, or occurs every 1-5 years |
Impact: estimate the consequences if the event occurs.
| Score | Impact | Criterion |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minor | A few dwellings affected. No casualties. Return to normal < 1 week. |
| 2 | Moderate | Tens of dwellings. Some injured. Disruptions 1-4 weeks. |
| 3 | Serious | Hundreds of people affected. Serious injuries possible. Disruptions 1-3 months. |
| 4 | Severe | Thousands of people affected. Casualties probable. Infrastructure damaged. Disruptions 3-12 months. |
| 5 | Catastrophic | Mass destruction. Multiple casualties. Infrastructure destroyed. Multi-year recovery. |
Risk matrix¶
Multiply the scores. The result determines your preparation priority level.
IMPACT
1 2 3 4 5
┌─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
5 │ 5 │ 10 │ 15 │ 20 │ 25 │
├─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
P 4 │ 4 │ 8 │ 12 │ 16 │ 20 │
R ├─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
O 3 │ 3 │ 6 │ 9 │ 12 │ 15 │
B ├─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
A 2 │ 2 │ 4 │ 6 │ 8 │ 10 │
├─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
1 │ 1 │ 2 │ 3 │ 4 │ 5 │
└─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘
Score 1-4 : LOW → Monitoring. Generic plan sufficient.
Score 5-9 : MODERATE → Basic preparation. Dedicated checklist.
Score 10-15 : HIGH → Specific plan. Annual drill. Dedicated material.
Score 16-25 : CRITICAL → Detailed plan. Semiannual drills. Active partnerships. Dedicated budget.
Club risk assessment sheet¶
Fill out this sheet in a disaster committee meeting. Time required: 1 to 2 hours with the right people in the room (one member who knows the territory, one who knows the official sources).
RISK ASSESSMENT — Club of ________________________
Date: ___/___/______
Completed by: _________________________________________
TERRITORY COVERED: ______________________________________
Municipality(ies): _____________________________________
Estimated population: __________________________________
RISKS IDENTIFIED:
| # | Type (code) | Probability (1-5) | Impact (1-5) | Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 2 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 3 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 4 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 5 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 6 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 7 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
| 8 | ____ | ___ | ___ | ___ | __ |
PRIORITY RISKS (score ≥ 10):
Risk #1: _________________________________________________
Last occurrence: _________________________________________
Most exposed zones: ______________________________________
Estimated vulnerable population: _________________________
Rotary tools to prepare: _________________________________
Risk #2: _________________________________________________
Last occurrence: _________________________________________
Most exposed zones: ______________________________________
Estimated vulnerable population: _________________________
Rotary tools to prepare: _________________________________
Risk #3: _________________________________________________
Last occurrence: _________________________________________
Most exposed zones: ______________________________________
Estimated vulnerable population: _________________________
Rotary tools to prepare: _________________________________
Signatures: President _____________ Disaster Coordinator _____________
Sample risk profiles by territory type¶
To illustrate the approach, here are four typical profiles. Your club likely resembles one of them.
Caribbean coastal club (e.g., Martinique, Guadeloupe, Jamaica)
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane/Cyclone (B1) | 5 | 5 | 25 | CRITICAL |
| Earthquake (A1) | 3 | 4 | 12 | HIGH |
| Tsunami (A2) | 2 | 5 | 10 | HIGH |
| Flood (B2) | 4 | 3 | 12 | HIGH |
| Volcanic eruption (A3) | 2 | 4 | 8 | MODERATE |
| Heatwave (B4) | 4 | 2 | 8 | MODERATE |
Urban European club (e.g., Lyon, Toulouse, Brussels)
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heatwave (B4) | 5 | 3 | 15 | HIGH |
| Flood (B2) | 3 | 3 | 9 | MODERATE |
| Blackout (D3) | 2 | 3 | 6 | MODERATE |
| Epidemic (E1) | 2 | 3 | 6 | MODERATE |
| HAZMAT explosion (D1) | 1 | 4 | 4 | LOW |
| Terror attack (outside EM-DAT codes, treat as complex crisis) | 1 | 4 | 4 | LOW |
Sub-Saharan African club (e.g., Sahel, East Africa)
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought (C1) | 5 | 4 | 20 | CRITICAL |
| Flood (B2) | 4 | 4 | 16 | CRITICAL |
| Epidemic (E1) | 4 | 4 | 16 | CRITICAL |
| Famine (F3) | 3 | 5 | 15 | HIGH |
| Conflict (F1) | 3 | 4 | 12 | HIGH |
| Displaced (F2) | 3 | 3 | 9 | MODERATE |
Pacific island club (e.g., Vanuatu, Fiji)
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyclone (B1) | 5 | 5 | 25 | CRITICAL |
| Earthquake (A1) | 4 | 4 | 16 | CRITICAL |
| Tsunami (A2) | 3 | 5 | 15 | HIGH |
| Flood (B2) | 4 | 3 | 12 | HIGH |
| Volcanic eruption (A3) | 3 | 4 | 12 | HIGH |
| Sea level rise | 5 | 3 | 15 | HIGH |
Mapping your territory¶
Risk assessment alone is not enough. You need to know where the impacts will be most severe. An earthquake does not strike a city uniformly. A flood affects low-lying areas. A cyclone devastates the coastline exposed to the wind.
The four layers to map¶
Layer 1, Risk zones¶
Mark on a map of your municipality the zones exposed to each identified risk:
- Flood zones (PPRi in France, equivalents elsewhere)
- Coastal zone (storm surge, tsunami)
- Unstable slopes (landslide)
- Proximity to SEVESO or classified industrial installations
- Forest-habitat interface zones (wildfires)
- Known seismic faults
Layer 2, Critical infrastructure¶
Identify and locate the infrastructures whose destruction or unavailability worsens the crisis:
| Infrastructure | Why it is critical | Information to collect |
|---|---|---|
| Hospital / Clinic | Care for the injured. If it goes down, everything gets complicated. | Address, capacity, backup generator? |
| Drinking water plant | Water supply. Contamination = epidemic. | Location, distribution network |
| Power plant / Substation | Power supply. Blackout = cascade. | Location, network |
| Bridges and main roads | Access. If bridges fail, neighborhoods are cut off. | Identify cut-off points |
| Schools / Gymnasiums | Potential shelter centers. | Accommodation capacity, kitchen, sanitation |
| Fire station | Emergency response. | Response time by neighborhood |
| Town Hall / Prefecture | Official coordination center. | Crisis room identified? |
| Gas stations | Fuel for generators and vehicles. | Location, storage capacity |
Layer 3, Vulnerable populations¶
Not everyone is equal in the face of disaster. Identify concentrations of vulnerable populations:
| Population | Specific vulnerability | Source of information |
|---|---|---|
| Isolated elderly | Reduced mobility, medical dependence, isolation | Social services, senior clubs |
| People with disabilities | Difficult evacuation, dependence on electricity (medical devices) | Disability agencies, specialized associations |
| Young children (< 5) | Rapid dehydration, malnutrition, vulnerability to epidemics | Daycare, maternal-child health, preschools |
| Homeless | Direct exposure, no fallback point | Homeless outreach, charitable associations |
| Tourists / Transient people | Do not know the territory, language barrier | Tourist offices, hotels |
| Non-native language speakers | Misunderstanding of alerts and instructions | Migrant associations, religious communities |
| People in precarious housing | Dwellings not resistant to hazards | Urban planning services, associations |
Layer 4, Available resources¶
Also map the resources, what is available on your territory to respond:
| Resource | Type | To identify |
|---|---|---|
| Warehouses / Storage areas | Logistics | Location, owner, accessibility |
| Supermarkets / Wholesalers | Supply | Manager contact, possibility of agreement |
| Open land / Large parking | Points of distribution, improvised helipad | Location, area |
| Construction companies | Heavy equipment, debris removal | Contact, availability |
| Pharmacies | Medical supply | Location, emergency hours |
| Rotary members with key skills | Human resource | Doctors, nurses, civil engineers, logisticians |
| Rotary members with equipment | Material resource | Generators, chainsaws, 4×4 vehicles, vans |
Mapping support¶
No need for sophisticated GIS. A municipal map printed in A3 with colored overlays (one per layer) is enough. Alternatively, Google My Maps allows collaborative maps to be created for free, accessible on phone.
The essential thing is that this map exists, that it is updated annually, and that the Disaster Coordinator and the club president have access to it, including offline.
Climate change: risks that evolve¶
What was a low risk 20 years ago can be a high risk today. Climate change is not an abstract subject for a disaster committee, it is a concrete parameter that modifies the risk matrix.
What is changing concretely¶
Heatwaves: in Europe, the 2003 heatwave was a once-in-a-millennium event (probability ~1/500 years at the time). Comparable episodes occurred in 2015, 2019, 2022, 2023, observed frequency: every 3-5 years. For a European urban club, heatwave goes from "low risk" (score 6-8) to "high risk" (score 12-16) in twenty years.
Hurricanes: the proportion of cyclones reaching category 4-5 in the North Atlantic has risen from approximately 20% (1980s) to ~35% (2020s) according to NOAA data. For clubs in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the risk ceiling rises a notch, the "category 4-5" scenario becomes the planning baseline, not the worst case.
Floods: urban paving combined with more intense rainfall multiplies by 2 to 4 the flash-flood risk in zones not historically classified as flood zones. Check the PPRI (France) or equivalents: some have been revised since 2020.
Droughts: the Mediterranean basin is warming 20% faster than the global average (IPCC). Clubs in southern France, Greece, Turkey, the Maghreb see drought shift from a seasonal risk to a structural risk.
Wildfires: extension northward (fires in Scandinavia, Canada, Siberia). Clubs up to 55° latitude must now integrate this risk into their matrix.
ESRAG as a resource¶
ESRAG (Environmental Sustainability Rotary Action Group) is the formal DNA-RAG partner on this dimension. They can help your club to:
- Assess the evolution of climate risks in your territory
- Integrate the "Build Back Better" dimension into reconstruction projects
- Access data and studies on climate resilience
- Build Global Grants incorporating the environmental component
Contact: esrag.org
Practical recommendation¶
During your annual risk assessment, systematically ask: "Has this risk increased compared to last year?" If the answer is yes for one or more risks, adjust the probability scores accordingly. The matrix is not frozen, it must reflect current reality, not that of ten years ago.
Priority actions from this chapter¶
Before moving on to chapter 4, make sure your club has:
- Consulted the official risk mapping of its municipality
- Probed local memory (elders, elected officials, firefighters)
- Filled out the probability × impact matrix for all identified risks
- Identified the 2-3 priority risks (score ≥ 10)
- Mapped the risk zones, critical infrastructure, vulnerable populations and available resources
- Integrated the climate change dimension into the analysis
- Stored these documents accessibly for the Disaster Coordinator, the president and at least two other members
If your territory faces risks with a score ≥ 16 (critical), this chapter alone justifies the establishment of a permanent disaster committee and a dedicated preparedness budget. Raise the matter at your next board meeting.